Many of you may be familiar with Christian author and radio host Dave Ramsey. For anyone who is not, Mr. Ramsey is famous for advocating being debt-free and paying cash for everything. Mr. Ramsey never forgets to tell his audience that he once filed for bankruptcy. Indeed, that seems to be the main credential for his beliefs on financial matters. And that is pretty much the entire extent of his financial expertise.
The Bible does caution people about going into debt.
The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender. – Proverbs 22:7
My problem with Mr. Ramsey stems from his advice on investments, as well as the type of person that he interacts with on-air. You see, I have never heard a ‘normal’ person call in to Mr. Ramsey’s show. No, it’s always someone who is making over $100,000 per year and who has been spending like a drunken sailor. That is, until they heard Dave on the radio or bought one of his books and realized that they are idiots with money. And they then proceed to tell Dave how they paid off their $40,000 of credit card debt over a period of 18-24 months.
Hallelujah! You are cured (of being an idiot)!
Heck, I once heard a guy with over $2 million in assets tell good ol’ Dave how he paid down his $400,000 in debt…by selling some of his assets. Look, if you have $2 million in assets, your debt level of 20% isn’t a problem. And if you make more than the average American ($50,000 per year) you shouldn’t be having financial problems unless you are an idiot. And you don’t have to call a multimillionaire (Dave has more than $50 million) to find out that you should cut expenses and stop being a dumbass with your spending.
But what really ground my gears was a caller the last time I listened to Dave’s radio show. This caller was a 24-year old college graduate making $50,000 per year. This kid was in good financial shape, having paid off half of his student loan debt in 2 years. He was calling to ask Dave’s advice on his employer’s 401k program.
Dave advised him to max out his contributions, and then took a side trip to Fantasyland. Dave used some funky new math to project that, if this kid put away $7,500 per year for the next 40 years, he would have $7.3 million in his account when he retired. The kid was ecstatic. I turned off my radio in disgust.
Why? Well, here’s how Dave got to that $7.3 million on an investment of only $300,000. First, he assumed that this kid was going to be making $50,000 per year (at least) for 40 years. He didn’t take into account the fact that the company might downsize or go out of business, or that they wouldn’t fire this kid and bring in a new college graduate (or foreign worker) who will work for less money. It’s a cliche nowadays, but I know several people that this has happened to in the last few years.
Not to mention the fact that this kid might meet a girl, get married, and have kids. Or get disabled in a car accident or find cancer growing inside of him. All of which would result in a higher level of expenses than he has right now, and all of which might result in a lower contribution to his retirement funds. Or that prices will have increased to the point where that fictional $7.3 million will barely pay his living expenses.
And here’s the kicker: Dave compounded the $300,000 by a 12.5% return every year.
Yeah, right. And monkeys might fly out of my butt.
This is completely unrealistic in a financial world where interest rates on long-term CDs are barely above 1%, and U.S. Treasury securities pay an interest rate of between 3% and 5%. Dave pulls this 12.5% rate of return out of his …um… experiences investing in index funds. What Dave fails to tell his listeners/groupies/cult members is the name of the exact fund that he is investing in to achieve this phenomenal return on investment and where they can sign up. And the reason why is probably that the fund is either closed to new investors, or that the fund is not open to people who do not reach a certain net worth (of say, maybe, $50 million? Like good ol’ Dave?).
You see, there are certain high-risk investment options that are only available to people who already have wealth. And these investments provide a higher rate of return than that crappy CD at the bank, or that U.S. Treasury security that your grandma gave you on your 12th birthday. And if you don’t make the cut financially, well, tough noogies. You don’t get to invest and make that 12.5%.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that kid calls Dave back in a few years and tells him about how the government confiscated his 401k, he lost everything in his divorce, and how Dave was full of shit with his 12.5% projection. Of course, that call would never go live on the air. Because that might cost Dave some money.