According to the Commerce Department, U.S. GDP rose by 5% in the 3rd quarter of 2014 (July, August, and September).
he American economy grew last quarter at its fastest rate in more than a decade, bolstered by robust spending among consumers and businesses alike.
Over July, August and September, economic output rose at an annual rate of 5 percent, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, a huge revision from its earlier estimate of 3.9 percent.
Although the growth rate is expected to decelerate somewhat in the current fourth quarter, the improved view in the rearview mirror corresponds with other, more recent evidence that the recovery is finally gaining sustained power more than five years after it began.
At least, that’s the federal government’s story. ZeroHedge looks into this revision, and finds out what really happened:
Fast forward to today when as every pundit is happy to report, the final estimate of Q3 GDP indeed rose by 5% (no really, just as we predicted), with a surge in personal consumption being the main driver of US growth in the June-September quarter. As noted before, between the second revision of the Q3 GDP number and its final print, Personal Consumption increased from 2.2% to 3.2% Q/Q, and ended up contributing 2.21% of the final 4.96% GDP amount, up from 1.51%.
So what did Americans supposedly spend so much more on compared to the previous revision released one month ago? Was it cars? Furnishings? Housing and Utilities? Recreational Goods and RVs? Or maybe nondurable goods and financial services?
Actually no. The answer, just as we predicted precisely 6 months ago is… well, just see for yourselves.
In short, two-thirds of the “boost” to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the “polar vortex” crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this “growth dry powder” for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.
That’s right. Almost the entire increase in GDP was due to Obamacare. And it was all just statistical manipulation.
But wait, there’s more!
So far so good: nothing abnormal, and in fact, in isolation this data would be good, suggesting the US consumer is spending more as the year closes.
And then we looked at the Personal Savings number: it was reported at 4.4% in November, down from 4.6% in October. Which is odd because last month, the October savings rate was disclosed as 5.0%, in turn down from a downward revised 5.6% in September.
Wait, could the BEA be engaging in precisely the same deception in November as it did in October.
Why yes, Virgina: not only did the US Department of Economic Truth completely fabricate its GDP numbers earlier, but the way it got to said fabrication is by fudging – for the second month in a row – both the entire Personal Income and Personal Saving data series.
So how was all this spending funded? Simple: Americans “supposedly” dug massively into their savings, and as the following chart shows, Personal Savings have now crashed from what was originally an “unrevised” 5.6% in September, subsequently revised to 5.0% in November and 4.5% currently, and all the way down to 4.4% in November. Incidentally, this is the lowest savings rate since 2013, and the lowest savings rate for the month of November since 2006!
So in short, today the market is euphoric and hitting all time highs because Americans dug into their savings and spent billions on the “Affordable” Care Act.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the short answer why the US is “growing” when the rest of the world is mired in a triple (or quadruple if one is Japan) recession.
Speculation is that this number will finally allow the Fed to begin raising interest rates due to the economic “recovery”. Hold on to you wallets, this is where the ride begins to get interesting.