The thrill is gone

The latest unemployment figures were released last Friday.  And once again, Economic Schizophrenia raised it’s ugly head:

Strong U.S. jobs data boosts dollar and stocks:

The U.S. dollar climbed to its highest in more than four years against a basket of currencies and major stock markets surged on Friday after data showed U.S. employers stepped up hiring last month and the jobless rate fell to a six-year low in further signs of a strengthening economy.

***

… the U.S. Labor Department reported non-farm payrolls rose 248,000 in September and the jobless rate fell two-tenths of a point to 5.9 percent…

So the number of jobs increased and the unemployment rate fell.  Except that it really didn’t:

The labor market still stinks, despite a good jobs report:

The latest employment report showed 248,000 jobs created in September, with the unemployment rate dipping to 5.9%. Pressure will mount on the Federal Reserve to end its super-easy monetary policy and begin raising interest rates. And it’s not a one-month fluke: Job creation this year has averaged roughly 220,000 new jobs per month, the best pace of job growth since the boom year of 1999.

Not even the financial press can keep up the lie that the job market is improving.  And this table shows why:

UnemploymentSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

These numbers show a lot of problems. The unemployment rate gets most of the attention, and it’s been coming down at a steady pace, dropping from 6.7% to 5.9% so far this year. But there are still more than 16 million Americans who are unemployed or working less than they want because they can’t find a good full-time job. That’s 4.2 million more than in 2007.

Many others have dropped out of the labor force, which shows up in the numbers as a 3.3 percentage point drop in the participation rate since 2007. That might not seem like a big number, but it represents something like 7 million people who would be working or looking for work if they hadn’t dropped out. Combined with all the unemployed and underemployed, that’s a lot of people who are contributing less to the economy than they would have in a 2007 scenario. Some draw government subsidies funded by taxpayers, with no other income.

The other big bummer is hourly wages, which have barely risen since 2007 when factoring in inflation. And that’s just for people with jobs. If you included people who used to have jobs but no longer do, the earnings number would be negative, which is why median household income is still far below where it was in 2007. That means people with jobs are barely staying even with inflation, on average, while the ranks of the economically distressed have swollen significantly.

Holy crap.  The mainstream media is starting to report the truth.  The most important number on the whole table is the labor force participation rate, which has fallen by 3.3 points.  This means that 3.3% of the U.S. labor force is no longer participating in the labor market.  These are the people who do not have a job and are no longer looking for work.  They are ‘discouraged workers’ who are not counted in the unemployment statistics.

And the voices crying out in the economic wilderness are getting louder.  Jim Rickards stated the following in an interview with Bloomberg:

“We’ve got 50 million Americans on food stamps,” listed Rickards to Bloomberg, “26 million Americans unemployed or underemployed, 11 million on disability, which is kind of a new form of unemployment in some cases — and that’s going up. Our fundamental economy is very weak.”

If you want to know more about what is really going on in the world economy, I recommend that you read Jim’s book “Currency Wars“.  It is a real eye-opener and provides an interesting theory on where we may be going economically.

Yet more cracks in the official government lies appeared in the news yesterday, when it was reported that a staffer in the Denver office of the U.S. Census Bureau informed her supervisors and others that the economic data being collected by her office was being falsified:

When I spoke with this whistleblower earlier this year as part of my investigation of Census, she told me that hundreds of interviews that go into the Labor Department’s unemployment rate and inflation surveys would miraculously be completed just hours before deadline.

The implication was that someone with the ability to fill in the blanks on incomplete surveys was doing just that.

The Denver whistleblower also provided to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform the names of other Census workers who can spill the beans about data fraud in other regions.

Census is broken up into six regions. Cheating has already been proven in the Philadelphia region. And with this whistleblower’s letter, Census authorities now have allegations that the same kind of nonsense was going on in Denver — that office covers Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

***

I asked recently the Denver whistleblower her opinion on the surveys Census is providing. “When the question is asked about data quality, my answer would be simple, there is none,” she said.

“I wouldn’t trust any data from the Census Bureau,” she added.

Last Friday, for instance, Labor announced that a healthy 248,000 new jobs were created in September, when the unemployment rate dipped to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent.

Those 248,000 new jobs are determined by a survey of companies — the Establishment Survey, it’s called — that is conducted by Labor itself. So while some people rightly take issue with the quality and temporary nature of many of those new jobs — and the fact that not enough have been created in the current economic cycle — the tabulation itself isn’t really in doubt.

The 5.9 percent unemployment rate comes from the Household Survey that Labor hires Census to conduct. There are big concerns about the truthfulness of the jobless rate, especially since this is the last report before the November congressional elections.

For instance, in September the rate fell to 5.9 percent mainly because 315,000 more people told Census they stopped looking for a job.

In fact, about a third of the recent decline in the unemployment rate can be attributed to a decline in the so-called Labor Participation Rate, which is now at a 36-year low. Ninety-six million Americans no longer consider themselves in the labor force.

Some think there is a logical explanation for this: baby boomers who are leaving the workforce because they simply don’t want to work anymore. But the data doesn’t bear that out.

There were 230,000 more workers aged 50 or older in the Household Survey released Friday. So how did the workforce decline by 315,000 people, if aging baby boomers were increasingly looking for jobs?

It’s either a miracle or someone’s pulling our leg.

Get that?  It’s all being falsified to make the economy look great going into the midterm elections.  Sorry, Chris Matthews.  That wasn’t a thrill that you felt on your leg after all.

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Categories: Bastards, Economic Schizophrenia, Government Shenanigans, Government Statistics, Liars, Propaganda, Unemployment

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