White Lies

You know all the recent talk about how many jobs are being created?  And how the unemployment rate is going down because of it?

Yeah, it’s all one big lie:

Here is how the BLS explains this adjustment:

 To account for this net birth/death portion of total employment, BLS uses an estimation procedure with two components: the first component excludes employment losses due to business deaths from sample-based estimation in order to offset the missing employment gains from business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based estimate procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample. This step accounts for most of the birth and death employment.

To be sure, in a normal, vibrant, growing and most importantly, entrepreneurial economy, incorporating business creation vs business deaths is a perfectly reasonable statistical adjustment to the actual number of underlying jobs via the BLS business sampling that takes place every month.

There is one problem: the Fed’s centrally-planned abortion of an “economy”, in which the rigged, bubble market is the only leading indicator that everyone focuses on and from which everything else “flows”, is anything but normal.

***

In the meantime, here is the bottom line: since Lehman, or starting in 2009, the Birth/Death adjustment alone has added over 3.5 million jobs. Or rather “jobs”, because these are not actual jobs – these are BLS estimates for how many jobs newly-formed businesses have created based purely on statistical estimations and hypotheses that the US economy in 2014 is as it was in 1960.

Here’s the proof:

firm entry exit rates

 

 

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Categories: Depression, Government Statistics, Unemployment

Tags: , , , , ,

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