All is…what?

The B(L)S reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 113,000 in January.  The problem is that it isn’t true:

NSA Jan JobsHow is this discrepancy possible?  Through something called a ‘seasonal adjustment’.

Incidentally, for all those confused, it is these same seasonal adjustments that at least on paper, are supposed to account for such things as seasons, and, well, weather. Only sometimes they apparently don’t, like right now. Which is also the reason why one can completely ignore the entire seasonal adjustment process because one after another economist is lining up to inform anyone caring to listen that the seasonal adjustment number is actually not adjusted enough.


Anyway, in January the Birth-Death adjustment resulted in a further 307K jobs being subtracted from the final NSA number as an intermediate adjustment step.

The net result, sans ‘seasonal adjustment’, is that 2.9 million jobs were actually lost in January.

All is well???



Categories: All is well!!!, Bad News Everyone!, Unemployment


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